Year: 2022 | Month: September | Volume 67 | Issue 4
Modelling and Forecasting of Maize Production in South Asian Countries
Shikha Yadav
Pradeep Mishra
Binita Kumari
Immad A Shah
Kadir Karakaya5
Shweta Shrivastri
Chellai Fatih
Soumik Ray
Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.4.2022.18
Abstract:
The challenges of fighting poverty and enhancing food security in South Asia have made maize a strategic crop in this region. In this study, maize production in South Asia, encompassing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, was analysed and projected from 1961 to 2027 using state-space and ARIMA models. The estimation outcomes demonstrated the state-space models’ superior performance in predicting trends in maize output for all eight time series. Additionally, the forecast estimation revealed that we anticipated an uptick in the output of maize in these nations; this finding would be encouraging for the countries in this region as it would heighten the problem of food security. India would be leading countries in maize with production of 380438 thousand tonnes in 2027.
Highlights
- According to the estimation results, state-space models performed better than other models at predicting future trends in maize production for all eight time series.
- With an upswing in maize production anticipated in all eight countries, governments may be more at ease pursuing more efficient strategies.
© This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
Print This Article Email This Article to Your Friend
